Introducing Expected Second Ball Retention: adding value to second balls

By admin december 31, 2025 2025, 2025, Data Analysis, Models

LONDON, ENGLAND – DECEMBER 22: Igor Jesus of Nottingham Forest is challenged by Sasa Lukic of Fulham during the Premier League match between Fulham and Nottingham Forest at Craven Cottage on December 22, 2025 in London, England. (Photo by Ryan Pierse/Getty Images)

Football metrics and models are also under the influence of trends within football. One of these trends is the use of set pieces to generate meaningful chances in the game. Another big recent trend or influence on the game is the use of long balls, specifically launches. In this article, I want to have a look a this trend, but also look ahead and why long balls are used. And, why are second balls vital

NFL: Is Purdy a good Quarterback?

By admin december 27, 2025 NFL

INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA – DECEMBER 22: Brock Purdy #13 of the San Francisco 49ers makes a pass for a touchdown during the first quarter of the game against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium on December 22, 2025 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)

Since I’m also writing about other sports, I’m going to take the opportunity to see how we can use data in other sports as well. What can we learn from identifying and analysing talent in the NFL? In this article, I will have a look at QB Purdy at the San Francisco 49ers and attempt to answer the following question: is he a good quarterback, above average, or does he profit from a good attacking system?

Expected Shot Danger: building an alternative to xG

By admin december 23, 2025 2025, Models, Years

Expected goals. I don’t even know where to start with how I feel about this particular metric, but I’m going to try it anyway. I feel that expected goals are actually an exciting metric and concept, but it’s more complex than popular sports media often portrays. And, I think that’s primarily because we don’t fully grasp what it takes to create such a model. That’s exactly where it does pique my interest, but in a different way than you might expect.

A mid-process metric: Emergence Index: Introducing a work in progress in measuring development in football

By admin november 14, 2025 2025, Data Analysis

I got to be honest with you, I have 37 projects which aren’t finished and are definitely in the midst of getting something tangible. And, a double truth here; I enjoy the process more than the finished product. Some finished products work and I will post them publicly, but most of them end up in a folder on my laptop with the idea that I might revisit them later (and sometimes I do!).

Lessons from the NFL for football: Explosive Plays

By admin oktober 19, 2025 2025, 2025, Data Analysis, Models

Basically, I’m really bad at writing intros, but trust me — this is a fascinating article to read. My aim for this article is to delve into American Football, more specifically, the NFL and/or NCAA college football. The reason why? Firstly, I think it can be fascinating to really delve into other team sports all across the globe, because I think we can learn from certain patterns and methodologies and apply them to football. And, perhaps in time, I might actually try to do it vice versa.