Introducing Expected Second Ball Retention: adding value to second balls

LONDON, ENGLAND – DECEMBER 22: Igor Jesus of Nottingham Forest is challenged by Sasa Lukic of Fulham during the Premier League match between Fulham and Nottingham Forest at Craven Cottage on December 22, 2025 in London, England. (Photo by Ryan Pierse/Getty Images)

Football metrics and models are also under the influence of trends within football. One of these trends is the use of set pieces to generate meaningful chances in the game. Another big recent trend or influence on the game is the use of long balls, specifically launches. In this article, I want to have a look a this trend, but also look ahead and why long balls are used. And, why are second balls vital

READ MORE

NFL: Is Purdy a good Quarterback?

INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA – DECEMBER 22: Brock Purdy #13 of the San Francisco 49ers makes a pass for a touchdown during the first quarter of the game against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium on December 22, 2025 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)

Since I’m also writing about other sports, I’m going to take the opportunity to see how we can use data in other sports as well. What can we learn from identifying and analysing talent in the NFL? In this article, I will have a look at QB Purdy at the San Francisco 49ers and attempt to answer the following question: is he a good quarterback, above average, or does he profit from a good attacking system?

READ MORE

Expected Shot Danger: building an alternative to xG

Expected goals. I don’t even know where to start with how I feel about this particular metric, but I’m going to try it anyway. I feel that expected goals are actually an exciting metric and concept, but it’s more complex than popular sports media often portrays. And, I think that’s primarily because we don’t fully grasp what it takes to create such a model. That’s exactly where it does pique my interest, but in a different way than you might expect.

rEAD MORE
```